Another Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention has come and gone.
The 2025 iteration of the biggest mining event globally was a success, with more than 25,000 attendees converging on the Metro Toronto Convention Center over the four day event.
Several key themes emerged at this year’s PDAC, with the most prevalent being the need for more exploration and funding, government support for the mining sector and the growing importance of critical minerals.
Setting the tone for the event, Mike Henry, CEO of BHP (ASX:BHP,NYSE:BHP,LSE:BHP), underscored in an hour-long keynote address the vast amount of critical minerals that will be needed in the years ahead.
‘In copper alone, we anticipate 70 percent growth in demand by the middle of this century. Billions of people depend on our industry’s ability to deliver the critical minerals the world needs in a timely, reliable and cost-effective manner,” he said.
The CEO went on to underscore the abundant resource potential offered by Canada, Australia and Chile, while also noting the massive investments needed to propel the energy transition and global decarbonization.
“Done well, the meeting of the world’s growing need for critical minerals can transform communities, economies and countries for the better, and one need look no further than Canada or Australia or Chile, three resource-rich nations that have harnessed their resource endowment for the effective benefit of the people,” Henry said.
He added that this continued effort requires capital, offering investors strong returns by supporting the right companies, commodities and standards. As Henry explained, for copper alone an investment of US$250 billion will be needed over the next five to 10 years to keep pace with “surging local demand.”
When extrapolated to include other in-demand metals, that number balloons to US$800 billion between now and 2040.
The need for exploration investment was also reiterated by Kevin Murphy, director of metals and mining research with S&P Global Commodity Insights. During his presentation, he noted that mining exploration spending has dropped sharply from its highs in 2011 and 2012, with gold remaining the top target, followed by copper, uranium and lithium.
“I would consider exploration the canary in the coal mine for the mining industry in general; it’s the base of the pyramid, where mines are at the top and a huge amount of exploration, in theory, should be at the bottom,’ said Murphy. “If we look at where we currently are in exploration spending compared to historic amounts, we’re actually down a fair bit.”
Over the last decade, exploration expenditure has also shifted focus, from greenfield to mine site exploration.
“if you go back into the ’90s, even the early 2000s, generative, purely generative exploration, looking for new deposits. That was actually the preferred place to put your money,” explained Murphy.
“That has shifted greatly, so much so it’s now the least preferred. People are exploring their mines. They’re exploring assets with resources already proven, and they are moving further and further away from doing generative exploration.”
According to Murphy, greenfield exploration dropped significantly in 2024, raising concerns about long-term supply, particularly for copper, where major new discoveries have slowed. Gold has long focused on mine site exploration, while lithium and uranium, as younger commodities, are targeting assets with proven but undeveloped resources.
With financing challenges persisting in 2025 and market uncertainty growing, exploration budgets are expected to shrink further, except possibly for gold amid policy shifts.
Capital investment and supply growth
To ensure the long-term success of the energy transition and mineral pipeline, most presenters and panelists at PDAC agreed that capital investment is imperative.
During a lithium panel discussion, the vast amount of lithium needed for the electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage was underscored as a crucial indicator of the amount of CAPEX the sector needs in the years ahead.
Lithium has been especially challenging, as the market swung into over supply in 2023 pushing prices down, also new technologies considered to still be in infancy are having issues ramping up output.
Near-term lithium supply faces challenges as key projects, especially in China, Chile, and Africa, struggle with delays due to financing, environmental, and permitting issues, Siddarth Subramani, director of lithium at Hatch told PDAC attendees.
He added that many projects are also ramping up slower than expected due to the industry’s lack of maturity.
In Argentina, lithium production is expected to grow from 75,000 tons to 300,000 metric tons by 2027, but technical and execution challenges could hinder this. A significant supply gap may emerge, pushing prices higher, but not enough to drive long-term production expansion.
A similar tone was struck during the Benchmark Summit, an event that coincides with PDAC. The day-long symposium focused on the supply chain of raw materials needed for the energy transition.
Increasing copper production will be pivotal in achieving global carbon reduction goals, as well as ensuring the energy transition can continue its implementation rate. To meet this demand, the globally diversified miner is looking to Latin America, especially Argentina and Chile, which represents a significant growth opportunity for copper supply in the coming years if the supportive policy environment continues.
During his address to Benchmark Summit guests, Tony Power, CEO of Anglo American’s (LSE:AAL,OTCQX:AAUKF) Peruvian operations, highlighted the growth potential Anglo’s Los Bronces asset in Chile possesses, describing it as the ‘gift that keeps giving.”
As Anglo works to expand the asset through underground development, Power was also forthcoming with the challenges that are facing the copper sector.
“It’s not getting cheaper to make copper mines. It’s getting more and more expensive,” said Power. “So the only way to offset that is the price of copper to go up to be able to sustain that capital investment.”
The impact of AI
While financing and supplying the energy transition were obvious themes, the unexpected demand forecasted by AI data centers and generative technologies emerged as an equally important focus at the world’s largest mining-centric conference.
The world’s growing adoption of AI paired with mass electrification are projected to push electricity demand up by 80 percent by 2050, a factor many energy transition reports did not take into consideration.
Getting ahead of this demand several tech companies penned nuclear power agreements deals in 2024. While the headline making deals brought attention to the nuclear sector, little attention was paid to the required upstream growth needed to supply U3O8 to those reactors.
Per Jander, director of Nuclear Fuel at WMC underscored the magnitude of nuclear energy needed to meet the ever growing global electricity demand.
Unlike traditional data centers, AI facilities require immense power and advanced cooling systems, such as liquid cooling, due to their high-intensity computing needs. This sector is still in its early stages, yet demand is already surging, with AI operations consuming 50 terawatt-hours annually, explained Jander.
“Then 100 terawatt hours by 2027,” he said, adding that he got that figure from Deepseek. “So it comes from itself.”
Additionally, Jander also asked several AI assistants which energy source they preferred.
“Three out of four said I want fusion,” said Jander, noting he didn’t limit the AI to specific energy types. “But one … said that (it) wanted to use nuclear power.”
Uranium isn’t the only sector expected to see a demand spike from the AI data center proliferation.
Noting that electrification is already pushing copper towards deficit, Micheal Meding, VP and GM at McEwen Copper (TSX:MUX,NYSE:MUX) believes AI electricity needs could tip that scale further.
“Data centers require huge amounts of copper and require a lot of energy, that energy needs to be generated and transported,” he said during a copper panel discussion at the Benchmark Summit. “So I think we haven’t really understood how much of this metal is going to be needed in the future.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Georgia Williams, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
