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The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at


XLU Leads with New High

Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.


Metal Mania in 2025

In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.


Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper

The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.  


Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.

Thanks for Tuning in!

See TrendInvestorPro.com for more


Is the market’s next surge already underway? Find out with Tom Bowley’s breakdown of where the money is flowing now and how you can get in front of it.

In this video, Tom covers key moves in the major indexes, revealing strength in transports, small caps, and home construction. He identifies industry rotation signals, which are pointing to aluminum, recreational products, and furnishings. Tom then demonstrates how to use StockCharts’ tools to scan for momentum stocks in emerging leadership groups — see why SGI tops Tom’s list. He ends with a discussion of post-earnings reactions from major names like GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and LVS. 

And, of course, Tom wraps every idea with clear chart setups you can act on today. 

This video premiered on July 24, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.

The chart of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has completed a roundtrip from the February high around $740 to the April low at $480 and all the way back again.  Over the last couple weeks, META has now pulled back from its retest of all-time highs, leaving investors to wonder what may come next.

Is this the beginning of a new downtrend phase for META?  Or just a brief pullback before a new uptrend phase propels META to new all-time highs?

Today we’ll look at two potential scenarios, including the double top pattern and the cup and handle pattern, and share which technical indicators and approaches could help us determine which path plays out into August.

The double top scenario basically means that the late July retest of the previous all-time high was the end of the recent uptrend phase.  The double top pattern is literally when a major resistance level is set and then retested.  The implication is that a lack of willing buyers means the uptrend is exhausted, and there is nowhere to go but down.

While the 21-day exponential moving average is currently in play for META, I would say that a break below the 50-day moving average could confirm this as the correct scenario.  If that smoothing mechanism does not hold, then the price action would imply less of a pullback and more like the beginning of a real distribution phase.

What is META pulls back but then resumes an uptrend phase, leading META to another new all-time high?  That would result in a confirmed cup and handle pattern, created by a large rounded bottoming pattern followed by a brief pullback.  The key to this pattern is the “rim” of the cup, which sits right at $740 for META.

Given the pullback META has demonstrated so far in July, I would say that a break above the $740 level would basically confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  That would suggest much more upside potential for META, as the stock would literally go into previously uncharted territory.

So how can we determine which scenario is more likely to play out?  This is where we need to incorporate more technical indicators into the discussion, as a way to further validate and confirm our investment thesis.

Just to review, I think a break above $740 would confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  I would also say that a break below the $680 level, which would represent a move below the 50-day moving average as well as the June swing lows, would basically confirm a bearish double top pattern.

We can also use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help determine whether META remains in a bullish trend phase.  During bull phases, the RSI rarely gets below 40, because buyers usually step in to “buy the dips” and keep the momentum fairly constructive.  So if the price would break down, and the RSI would not hold that crucial 40 level, that could mean a bearish outlook is warranted.

Finally, we can use volume-based indicators to assess whether moves in the price are supported by stronger volume readings.  Here I’ve included the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which tracks the trend in daily volume readings over time.  We can see that the high in July resulted in a divergence, as the A/D line was trending lower.  If the A/D line would break below its June and July lows, marked by a dashed red line, that would represent a bearish volume reading for META.

Technical analysis is less about predicting the future, and more about determining the most probable scenarios based on our analysis of trend, momentum, and volume.  I hope this discussion shows how the outlook for META can be easily determined and tracked using the best practices of technical analysis!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs are hitting toy giants Mattel and Hasbro as the critical holiday season nears. Still, both companies see a successful year end ahead.

“This quarter, our U.S. business was again challenged by industry-wide shifts in retailer ordering patterns,” CEO Ynon Kreiz said on Mattel’s recent earnings call. “That said, consumer demand for our products grew in every region, including in the U.S.”

During the most recent quarter, which ended Sept. 30, Mattel said sales slipped 6% globally, led by a 12% decline in North America. International sales rose 3%.

Some of the company’s top performing categories included Hot Wheels and action figures, primarily from the “Jurassic World,” Minecraft and WWE franchises.

Other Mattel brands saw a drop in sales, however, including Barbie and Fisher-Price.

With retail stores waiting until the last minute to assess the level of tariffs that would apply to their holiday orders, Kreiz said “since the beginning of the fourth quarter, orders from retailers in the U.S. have accelerated significantly.”

Retailers “expect strong demand for the holiday and they are restocking,” he added.

Meanwhile, rival toy giant Hasbro’s revenue jumped 8% in the quarter and it raised its financial guidance for the rest of the year.

Key drivers of that included “Peppa Pig” and Marvel franchise toys, as well as the Wizards of the Coast games.

Hasbro “managed tariff volatility with agility” and used price hikes to protect its margins, said Gina Goetter, the company’s chief financial officer and chief operating officer.

The company remains “firmly on track” to achieve its financial targets.

“As we calculate the various scenarios of where that absolute rates will play out, we’re really putting all of our levers to work,” she said on the company’s recent earnings call.

“From how we think about pricing, how we’re thinking about our product mix, how we’re thinking about our supply chain, and how we’re managing all of our operating expenses to mitigate and offset the impact” of tariffs, she said.

For its part, Hasbro also saw “softness” in the U.S. during the quarter due to retail chains waiting longer to place holiday orders, but said momentum is accelerating as the season gets underway.

In July, Mattel’s chief financial officer, Paul Ruh, said that the company was raising prices because of tariffs.

“We have implemented a variety of actions that will help us withstand some of those headwinds and those include … supply chain efficiencies and some pricing adjustments, particularly in the U.S.,” Ruh said on the company’s earnings conference call.

“So with that array of actions, we’re able to withstand some of the uncertainty that is mostly coming in the top line,” Ruh said. “Our goal is to keep prices as low as possible for our consumers.”

Still, Kreiz said that “consumers are buying our products and the toy industry is growing.”

He also said that consumers are taking price hikes in stride and those increases haven’t hurt demand: “We are not seeing any slowdown in consumer demand so far.”

Hasbro CEO Chris Cocks said the company has also raised some prices, but it was “pretty surgical” in what it chose to adjust.

“In terms of ongoing pricing, I think we just kind of have to see how the holiday goes and the consumer holds up,” he told analysts on the company’s earnings call.

Cocks also cautioned that there may be a two-tier economy forming, something other executives and economists have observed in recent months.

“Right now, I think it’s really kind of a tale of two consumers. The top 20%, particularly in the U.S., continue to spend pretty robustly,” he said. “The balance of households are watching their wallets a bit more.”

On Friday, the Labor Department released the latest consumer price index data, which showed that inflation is rising at a 3% annual pace, up from August’s 2.9%.

In May, Kreiz told CNBC that approximately half of the company’s toys were sourced from China.

Beijing has faced some of the steepest tariffs from Washington of any U.S. trade partner, as Trump has rolled out his disruptive trade agenda this year.

Mattel’s Ruh said the company continued to adjust its supply chains in response to shifting global tariff policies.

“We will be continuing to work with our retailers to make sure that the product is on the shelf,” he said.

At the same time, Hasbro’s Goetter said the company is diversifying its supply chains away from high-tariff countries.

“By 2026, we expect approximately 30% of our total Hasbro toy and game revenue will be sourced from China and 30% of our revenue will be based in the U.S., as we opportunistically lean into our U.S. manufacturing capacity,” she said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Card-reading contact lenses, X-ray poker tables, trays of poker chips that read cards, hacked shuffling machines that predict hands. The technology alleged to have been used to execute a multistate, rigged poker operation sounds like it’s straight out of Hollywood.

And those were only some of the gadgets that authorities say were used to swindle millions of dollars from unsuspecting victims through rigged, high-dollar, underground poker games over more than five years.

A sprawling indictment unsealed Thursday by the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of New York charged Chauncey Billups, the head coach of the NBA’s Portland Trail Blazers, and Damon Jones, a former NBA player, along with members of the Mafia and dozens of other defendants, with being part of a conspiracy.

The victims were “at the mercy of concealed technology, including rigged shuffling machines and specially designed contacts lenses and sunglasses to read the backs of playing cards, which ensured that the victims would lose big,” U.S. Attorney Joseph Nocella of Brooklyn said in a statement.

Cheating at poker is as old as poker itself. But today, wearable tech and nano-cameras are putting even upstanding poker players on their guard.

The defendants used “special contact lenses or eyeglasses that could read pre-marked cards,” Nocella said at a news conference announcing the indictments.

He also showed a photo of an X-ray table that “could read cards face down on the table … because of the X-ray technology.”

An X-ray poker table in an image from defendant Robert Stroud’s iCloud account.U.S. Justice Department

“Defendants used other cheating technologies, such as poker chip tray analyzers, which is a poker chip tray that secretly reads cards using a hidden camera,” he said.

And while marking poker cards so they are visible only with special eyewear is an old trick, new radio-frequency identification and infrared technologies have ramped up the sophistication levels.

Technically speaking, many of the devices involved in the alleged scam authorities detailed Thursday are relatively cheap to manufacture, said Sal Piacente, a gaming security consultant.

By the time they reach their customers, however, the cost of industrial shufflers or tables can easily approach $100,000, once distributors and middlemen are factored in.

“You could make a lucrative career buying this stuff,” Piacente said.

Casino and gaming security consultants told NBC News that the alleged scheme was possible only because the games were underground. In backrooms, there was none of the surveillance tech that reputable casinos use to catch players cheating.

“A lot of the features which made this scheme so successful would have been ID’d a lot sooner, or very quickly, in a traditional regulated gaming environment,” said Ian Messenger, a former U.K. law enforcement officer and founder and CEO of the Association of Certified Gaming Compliance Specialists.

More than any other tech, it was the reprogramming of the industrial card shufflers — identified in charging documents as Deckmate-brand machines — that authorities said was key to the alleged game rigging.

A DeckMate 2 shuffler taken apart on a table in an image from defendant Shane Hennen’s iCloud account. U.S. Justice Department

Deckmates are not sold directly to the public — though many used ones can be found for sale online. The ones at the high-dollar games cited in the indictment could read cards and predict which player had the best hand. Neither Deckmate nor its parent company, Light & Wonder, were implicated in any way in Thursday’s indictments.

A spokesman for Light & Wonder told NBC News in a statement that the company was aware of reports about the charges against people but said they were not affiliated with the company.

“We sell and lease our automatic card shufflers and other gaming products and services only to licensed casinos and other licensed gaming establishments,” said Andy Fouché, the company’s vice president of communications. “We will cooperate in any law enforcement investigation related to this indictment.”

Reprogramming shufflers is not a new trick. In 2023, hackers at the Black Hat security conference in Las Vegas presented research showing how to hack a Deckmate shuffler and use it to cheat.

The rigged shuffler machines would transmit information about the players’ hands to an off-site “operator,” according to prosecutors.

The computer program showing information transmitted by the rigged shuffling machine in an image from defendant Shane Hennen’s iCloud account. U.S. Justice Department

The operator would then communicate the information to someone else at the table, dubbed the “quarterback.” The victim was known as the “fish.”

Here, the high-tech gadgets met the low-tech of a card game.

The quarterback might touch the $1,000 poker chip or tap his chin or touch his black chips to indicate who at the table had the best hand.

Text messages obtained by prosecutors also appear to show defendants concerned that a fish would leave the table if he lost too many hands.

“Guys please let him win a hand he’s in for 40k in 40 minutes he will leave if he gets no traction,” read one text message released by authorities.

But according to Messenger, the consultant, it was not the tech that made the alleged scheme so successful for so long. What set it apart was the level of communication.

For example, he said, the card information had to be seamlessly passed from the dealing machines to an off-site operator and back to a person back at the table, all without alerting the fish.

“The piece that made this so successful was the coordination, not the technology,” he said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Target said Thursday that it is eliminating about 1,800 corporate positions in an effort to streamline decision-making and accelerate initiatives to rebuild the flagging discount retailer’s customer base.

About 1,000 employees are expected to receive layoff notices next week, and the company also plans to eliminate about 800 vacant jobs, a company spokesperson said. The cuts represent about 8% of Target’s corporate workforce globally, although the majority of the affected employees work at the company’s Minneapolis headquarters, the spokesperson said.

Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke, who is set to become Target’s next CEO on Feb. 1, issued a note to personnel on Thursday announcing the downsizing. He said further details would come on Tuesday, and he asked employees at the Minneapolis offices to work from home next week.

“The truth is, the complexity we’ve created over time has been holding us back,” Fiddelke, a 20-year Target veteran, wrote in his note. “Too many layers and overlapping work have slowed decisions, making it harder to bring ideas to life.”

Target, which has about 1,980 U.S. stores, lost ground to Walmart and Amazon in recent years as inflation caused shoppers to curtail their discretionary spending. Customers have complained of messy stores with merchandise that did not reflect the expensive-looking but budget-priced niche that long ago earned the retailer the jokingly posh nickname “Tarzhay.”

Fiddelke said in August when he was announced as Target’s next CEO that he would step into the role with three urgent priorities: reclaiming the company’s position as a leader in selecting and displaying merchandise; improving the customer experience by making sure shelves are consistently stocked and stores are clean; and investing in technology.

He cited the same goals in his message to employees, calling the layoffs a “necessary step in building the future of Target and enabling the progress and growth we all want to see.”

“Adjusting our structure is one part of the work ahead of us. It will also require new behaviors and sharper priorities that strengthen our retail leadership in style and design and enable faster execution,” he wrote.

Target has reported flat or declining comparable sales — those from established physical stores and online channels — in nine out of the past 11 quarters. The company reported in August that comparable sales dipped 1.9% in its second quarter, when its net income also dropped 21%.

The job cuts will not affect any store employees or workers in Target’s sorting, distribution and other supply chain facilities, the company spokesperson said.

The corporate workers losing their jobs will receive pay and benefits until Jan. 8 as well as severance packages, the spokesperson said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A group that includes activist investor Jana Partners and NFL player Travis Kelce says it has accumulated one of the largest ownership stakes in Six Flags Entertainment and intends to press the company’s leadership on ways to improve the struggling amusement park operator’s business.

Jana said Tuesday that the investor group now owns an economic interest of approximately 9% in Six Flags. The group plans to ‘engage’ with Six Flags’ management and board of directors to discuss ways to enhance shareholder value and improve visitors’ experience.

Shares in the Charlotte, North Carolina-based Six Flags surged 17.7% on the news. The shares added another 5.1% gain in after-hours trading. Even with Tuesday’s rally, the company’s shares are down about 47% so far this year.

Six Flags reported a loss of $319.4 million for the first half of the year. The company said attendance fell 9% in the three months that ended June 29, due partly to bad weather and a ‘challenged consumer’ in most of the markets it operates in.

The investor group also includes consumer executive Glenn Murphy and technology executive Dave Habiger.

Kelce, tight end for the Kansas City Chiefs, said in a statement that he grew up going to Six Flags amusement parks.

‘The chance to help make Six Flags special for the next generation is one I couldn’t pass up,’ he said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The American cattle ranching industry is blasting President Donald Trump’s proposal to purchase beef from Argentina in an effort to lower supermarket beef prices.

“This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, said in a statement Monday.

Wyoming-based cattle operation Meriwether Farms addressed Trump directly in a social media post Monday.

“We love you and support you — but your suggestion to buy beef from Argentina to stabilize beef prices would be an absolute betrayal to the American cattle rancher,” the farm wrote on X.

By midday Tuesday, the post had already received 4 million views. A representative for Meriwether Farms did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump floated purchasing beef from the South American nation Sunday aboard Air Force One to push down U.S. beef prices by increasing the overall supply.

‘We would buy some beef from Argentina,’ he told reporters, ‘If we do that, that will bring our beef prices down.’

Beef prices have hit record highs this year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fueled in part by depleted herd counts and steady demand from U.S. consumers.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Markets don’t usually hit record highs, risk falling into bearish territory, and spring back to new highs within six months. But that’s what happened in 2025.

In this special mid-year recap, Grayson Roze sits down with David Keller, CMT, to show how disciplined routines, price-based signals, and a calm process helped them ride the whipsaw instead of getting tossed by it. You’ll see what really happened under the surface, how investor psychology drove the swings, and the exact StockCharts tools they leaned on to stay objective. 

If you’re focused on protecting capital, generating income, and sleeping well at night while still capturing the upside, this is a must-watch. Discover which charts deserve your attention now, what to ignore, and how to prep for the back half of 2025. 

This video premiered on July 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.