Markets don’t usually hit record highs, risk falling into bearish territory, and spring back to new highs within six months. But that’s what happened in 2025.
In this special mid-year recap, Grayson Roze sits down with David Keller, CMT, to show how disciplined routines, price-based signals, and a calm process helped them ride the whipsaw instead of getting tossed by it. You’ll see what really happened under the surface, how investor psychology drove the swings, and the exact StockCharts tools they leaned on to stay objective.
If you’re focused on protecting capital, generating income, and sleeping well at night while still capturing the upside, this is a must-watch. Discover which charts deserve your attention now, what to ignore, and how to prep for the back half of 2025.
This video premiered on July 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze pageon StockCharts TV.
You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.
The chart of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has completed a roundtrip from the February high around $740 to the April low at $480 and all the way back again. Over the last couple weeks, META has now pulled back from its retest of all-time highs, leaving investors to wonder what may come next.
Is this the beginning of a new downtrend phase for META? Or just a brief pullback before a new uptrend phase propels META to new all-time highs?
Today we’ll look at two potential scenarios, including the double top pattern and the cup and handle pattern, and share which technical indicators and approaches could help us determine which path plays out into August.
The double top scenario basically means that the late July retest of the previous all-time high was the end of the recent uptrend phase. The double top pattern is literally when a major resistance level is set and then retested. The implication is that a lack of willing buyers means the uptrend is exhausted, and there is nowhere to go but down.
While the 21-day exponential moving average is currently in play for META, I would say that a break below the 50-day moving average could confirm this as the correct scenario. If that smoothing mechanism does not hold, then the price action would imply less of a pullback and more like the beginning of a real distribution phase.
What is META pulls back but then resumes an uptrend phase, leading META to another new all-time high? That would result in a confirmed cup and handle pattern, created by a large rounded bottoming pattern followed by a brief pullback. The key to this pattern is the “rim” of the cup, which sits right at $740 for META.
Given the pullback META has demonstrated so far in July, I would say that a break above the $740 level would basically confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern. That would suggest much more upside potential for META, as the stock would literally go into previously uncharted territory.
So how can we determine which scenario is more likely to play out? This is where we need to incorporate more technical indicators into the discussion, as a way to further validate and confirm our investment thesis.
Just to review, I think a break above $740 would confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern. I would also say that a break below the $680 level, which would represent a move below the 50-day moving average as well as the June swing lows, would basically confirm a bearish double top pattern.
We can also use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help determine whether META remains in a bullish trend phase. During bull phases, the RSI rarely gets below 40, because buyers usually step in to “buy the dips” and keep the momentum fairly constructive. So if the price would break down, and the RSI would not hold that crucial 40 level, that could mean a bearish outlook is warranted.
Finally, we can use volume-based indicators to assess whether moves in the price are supported by stronger volume readings. Here I’ve included the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which tracks the trend in daily volume readings over time. We can see that the high in July resulted in a divergence, as the A/D line was trending lower. If the A/D line would break below its June and July lows, marked by a dashed red line, that would represent a bearish volume reading for META.
Technical analysis is less about predicting the future, and more about determining the most probable scenarios based on our analysis of trend, momentum, and volume. I hope this discussion shows how the outlook for META can be easily determined and tracked using the best practices of technical analysis!
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at
XLU Leads with New High
Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.
Metal Mania in 2025
In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.
Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper
The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.
Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
Nio stock price has pulled back in the past few days, mirroring the performance of other Chinese electric vehicles. It was trading at $5.90 on Tuesday, down substantially from the year-to-date high of $7.01. Still, the stock is showing some bullish signals, which may lead to a strong comeback in the near term.
Nio stock price technical analysis points to a rebound
The daily chart shows that the Nio stock price has pulled back in the past few days, moving from a high of $7 to the current $6. This retreat happened as investors booked profits after its double-digit gains.
On the positive side, this retreat seems to be part of the series of higher highs and higher lows that it has formed in the past few months.
Another positive is that the stock has remained above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bulls remain in control for now.
The stock has now moved slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slumped below the neutral point at 50. The Stochastic Oscillator has also dropped below the oversold level
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock resumes the uptrend and moves to the key resistance level at $8, its highest point on October 1 last year. Such a move will be 35% increase from the current level and will be confirmed if it moves above the key resistance level at $7.
Nio share price chart | Source: TradingView
Top Catalysts for Nio shares
There are some potential catalysts for the Nio stock price. The most important is that the company’s deliveries are rising and its profitability is improving.
Its recently released delivery numbers showed that it sold 29,356 vehicles in April this year, up by 22.8% from the same period last month. It brought the number of total deliveries year-to-date to 112,821, a 71% growth rate.
Its growth has beaten other companies in the industry. For example, in a recent report. BYD said that its vehicle deliveries dropped for eight consecutive months as competition rose. It sold 314,100 passenger cars in April this year.
Similarly, Nio’s growth was better than that of XPeng, which delivered 31,011 vehicles, up by 13% YoY. Li Auto’s deliveries rose slightly to 34,085 from 33,940 in April last year.
Nio’s sales are being boosted by the popular ES8 vehicle, which has become one of the most popular brands in China.
It is now banking on the ES9 vehicle, which has moved into pre-sales, with the deliveries meant to happen on May 29. The new vehicle started selling at 529,000 CNY or $77,000, with the most premium one selling for 658k or $96,000.
The company has also started selling L80, the flagship brand of its ONVO brand that starts at $35,000.
All this is happening at a time when the company has started being profitable. It made a $40 million profit in the fourth quarter of last year, and the management believes that the trend will continue in the foreseeable future.
The company’s sales jumped by 75% in the fourth quarter, with analysts expecting the upcoming results to show that its revenue rose by 109% to CNY 25.2 billion. For the year, the annual revenue will be CNY 130 billion, up by nearly 50%.
Additionally, the ongoing Iran war has pushed fuel prices higher, which will lead to more demand for electric vehicles in China and other markets.
Is the market’s next surge already underway? Find out with Tom Bowley’s breakdown of where the money is flowing now and how you can get in front of it.
In this video, Tom covers key moves in the major indexes, revealing strength in transports, small caps, and home construction. He identifies industry rotation signals, which are pointing to aluminum, recreational products, and furnishings. Tom then demonstrates how to use StockCharts’ tools to scan for momentum stocks in emerging leadership groups — see why SGI tops Tom’s list. He ends with a discussion of post-earnings reactions from major names like GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and LVS.
And, of course, Tom wraps every idea with clear chart setups you can act on today.
This video premiered on July 24, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.
Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.
Markets don’t usually hit record highs, risk falling into bearish territory, and spring back to new highs within six months. But that’s what happened in 2025.
In this special mid-year recap, Grayson Roze sits down with David Keller, CMT, to show how disciplined routines, price-based signals, and a calm process helped them ride the whipsaw instead of getting tossed by it. You’ll see what really happened under the surface, how investor psychology drove the swings, and the exact StockCharts tools they leaned on to stay objective.
If you’re focused on protecting capital, generating income, and sleeping well at night while still capturing the upside, this is a must-watch. Discover which charts deserve your attention now, what to ignore, and how to prep for the back half of 2025.
This video premiered on July 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze pageon StockCharts TV.
You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.
The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.
How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.
While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.
From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.
New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up
If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.
As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.
Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.
The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”
The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.
Active Bullish Patterns
We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.
Failed Bearish Patterns
In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.
The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.
We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.
The chart of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has completed a roundtrip from the February high around $740 to the April low at $480 and all the way back again. Over the last couple weeks, META has now pulled back from its retest of all-time highs, leaving investors to wonder what may come next.
Is this the beginning of a new downtrend phase for META? Or just a brief pullback before a new uptrend phase propels META to new all-time highs?
Today we’ll look at two potential scenarios, including the double top pattern and the cup and handle pattern, and share which technical indicators and approaches could help us determine which path plays out into August.
The double top scenario basically means that the late July retest of the previous all-time high was the end of the recent uptrend phase. The double top pattern is literally when a major resistance level is set and then retested. The implication is that a lack of willing buyers means the uptrend is exhausted, and there is nowhere to go but down.
While the 21-day exponential moving average is currently in play for META, I would say that a break below the 50-day moving average could confirm this as the correct scenario. If that smoothing mechanism does not hold, then the price action would imply less of a pullback and more like the beginning of a real distribution phase.
What is META pulls back but then resumes an uptrend phase, leading META to another new all-time high? That would result in a confirmed cup and handle pattern, created by a large rounded bottoming pattern followed by a brief pullback. The key to this pattern is the “rim” of the cup, which sits right at $740 for META.
Given the pullback META has demonstrated so far in July, I would say that a break above the $740 level would basically confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern. That would suggest much more upside potential for META, as the stock would literally go into previously uncharted territory.
So how can we determine which scenario is more likely to play out? This is where we need to incorporate more technical indicators into the discussion, as a way to further validate and confirm our investment thesis.
Just to review, I think a break above $740 would confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern. I would also say that a break below the $680 level, which would represent a move below the 50-day moving average as well as the June swing lows, would basically confirm a bearish double top pattern.
We can also use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help determine whether META remains in a bullish trend phase. During bull phases, the RSI rarely gets below 40, because buyers usually step in to “buy the dips” and keep the momentum fairly constructive. So if the price would break down, and the RSI would not hold that crucial 40 level, that could mean a bearish outlook is warranted.
Finally, we can use volume-based indicators to assess whether moves in the price are supported by stronger volume readings. Here I’ve included the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which tracks the trend in daily volume readings over time. We can see that the high in July resulted in a divergence, as the A/D line was trending lower. If the A/D line would break below its June and July lows, marked by a dashed red line, that would represent a bearish volume reading for META.
Technical analysis is less about predicting the future, and more about determining the most probable scenarios based on our analysis of trend, momentum, and volume. I hope this discussion shows how the outlook for META can be easily determined and tracked using the best practices of technical analysis!
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.
Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at
XLU Leads with New High
Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.
Metal Mania in 2025
In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.
Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper
The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.
Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth
The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.
