Breaking
Dark Pool Bulls
Author

admin

Browsing

S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

3 Mins Read

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Keep Reading

A Wild Ride For the History Books: 2025 Mid-Year Recap

1 Min Read

Markets don’t usually hit record highs, risk falling into bearish territory, and spring back to new highs within six months. But that’s what happened in 2025.

In this special mid-year recap, Grayson Roze sits down with David Keller, CMT, to show how disciplined routines, price-based signals, and a calm process helped them ride the whipsaw instead of getting tossed by it. You’ll see what really happened under the surface, how investor psychology drove the swings, and the exact StockCharts tools they leaned on to stay objective. 

If you’re focused on protecting capital, generating income, and sleeping well at night while still capturing the upside, this is a must-watch. Discover which charts deserve your attention now, what to ignore, and how to prep for the back half of 2025. 

This video premiered on July 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Keep Reading

Chart Mania – 23 ATR Move in QQQ – Metals Lead 2025 – XLV Oversold – XLU Breakout – ITB Moment of Truth

2 Mins Read

Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at

XLU Leads with New High

Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.

Metal Mania in 2025

In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.

Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper

The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.  

Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.

Thanks for Tuning in!

See TrendInvestorPro.com for more…

Keep Reading

S&P 500 Breaking Out Again: What This Means for Your Portfolio

3 Mins Read

The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Keep Reading

Is META Breaking Out or Breaking Down?

4 Mins Read

The chart of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has completed a roundtrip from the February high around $740 to the April low at $480 and all the way back again.  Over the last couple weeks, META has now pulled back from its retest of all-time highs, leaving investors to wonder what may come next.

Is this the beginning of a new downtrend phase for META?  Or just a brief pullback before a new uptrend phase propels META to new all-time highs?

Today we’ll look at two potential scenarios, including the double top pattern and the cup and handle pattern, and share which technical indicators and approaches could help us determine which path plays out into August.

The double top scenario basically means that the late July retest of the previous all-time high was the end of the recent uptrend phase.  The double top pattern is literally when a major resistance level is set and then retested.  The implication is that a lack of willing buyers means the uptrend is exhausted, and there is nowhere to go but down.

While the 21-day exponential moving average is currently in play for META, I would say that a break below the 50-day moving average could confirm this as the correct scenario.  If that smoothing mechanism does not hold, then the price action would imply less of a pullback and more like the beginning of a real distribution phase.

What is META pulls back but then resumes an uptrend phase, leading META to another new all-time high?  That would result in a confirmed cup and handle pattern, created by a large rounded bottoming pattern followed by a brief pullback.  The key to this pattern is the “rim” of the cup, which sits right at $740 for META.

Given the pullback META has demonstrated so far in July, I would say that a break above the $740 level would basically confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  That would suggest much more upside potential for META, as the stock would literally go into previously uncharted territory.

So how can we determine which scenario is more likely to play out?  This is where we need to incorporate more technical indicators into the discussion, as a way to further validate and confirm our investment thesis.

Just to review, I think a break above $740 would confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  I would also say that a break below the $680 level, which would represent a move below the 50-day moving average as well as the June swing lows, would basically confirm a bearish double top pattern.

We can also use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help determine whether META remains in a bullish trend phase.  During bull phases, the RSI rarely gets below 40, because buyers usually step in to “buy the dips” and keep the momentum fairly constructive.  So if the price would break down, and the RSI would not hold that crucial 40 level, that could mean a bearish outlook is warranted.

Finally, we can use volume-based indicators to assess whether moves in the price are supported by stronger volume readings.  Here I’ve included the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which tracks the trend in daily volume readings over time.  We can see that the high in July resulted in a divergence, as the A/D line was trending lower.  If the A/D line would break below its June and July lows, marked by a dashed red line, that would represent a bearish volume reading for META.

Technical analysis is less about predicting the future, and more about determining the most probable scenarios based on our analysis of trend, momentum, and volume.  I hope this discussion shows how the outlook for META can be easily determined and tracked using the best practices of technical analysis!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Keep Reading

Momentum Leaders Are Rotating — Here’s How to Find Them

1 Min Read

Is the market’s next surge already underway? Find out with Tom Bowley’s breakdown of where the money is flowing now and how you can get in front of it.

In this video, Tom covers key moves in the major indexes, revealing strength in transports, small caps, and home construction. He identifies industry rotation signals, which are pointing to aluminum, recreational products, and furnishings. Tom then demonstrates how to use StockCharts’ tools to scan for momentum stocks in emerging leadership groups — see why SGI tops Tom’s list. He ends with a discussion of post-earnings reactions from major names like GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and LVS. 

And, of course, Tom wraps every idea with clear chart setups you can act on today. 

This video premiered on July 24, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.

Keep Reading
Investing

Zimbabwe ZiG: Gold-backed currency stays stable despite risks

Investing 3 Mins Read

Zimbabwe’s gold-backed currency, ZiG, has held steady this year as adoption continues and the country’s economy improves. The USD/ZWG pair was trading at 26.22 on Thursday, inside a range it has remained at in the past few months.

Zimbabwe ZiG stable as the central bank calls it, undervalued

ZIG, a currency backed by gold and foreign currency, has become one of the most stable currencies in Africa. It started the year trading at 25.9 and has now risen slightly to 26.22. It has largely moved in a horizontal direction for the most part of the year.

In a recent statement, the head of Zimbabwe’s central bank argued that it had become highly undervalued. He estimates that it is cheap by about 50%, pointing to the improving economy and growing usage.

One potential catalyst for the Zimbabwe ZiG is that the country’s economy has made some steady recovery in the past few months. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the economy will grow by 5% this year, helped by the agricultural sector.

For example, the critical tobacco industry is experiencing a boom, with exports rising to over 83 million kilograms by late April. At the current prices, the tobacco sales were worth over $545 million. It was a 66% surge from the same period a year earlier.

The same boom is happening in the mining industry, where the country is benefiting from the higher gold and platinum prices. While the two metals have dropped recently, they remain much higher than where they were a few years ago. 

This is benefiting the country by bringing more foreign exchange. It is also benefiting the ZiG currency that is backed by gold. Indeed, the country’s sovereign wealth fund is now raising $250 million to boost gold production to boost the economy.

The main challenge for the economy is the ongoing Iran war that has pushed energy prices much higher. ZERA, the energy regulatory authority, has boosted petrol prices, a move that has boosted inflation. 

Petrol prices have now jumped by over 50% since the war started in February. Before that, Zimbabwe’s inflation dropped to single-digits for the first time in decades.

Government plans to boost ZiG currency usage

Still, despite the stable ZiG currency, most people in Zimbabwe prefer using the US dollar. That’s because many of them, together with local businesses, have seen several Zimbabwe currencies collapse. Today, the dollar accounts for over 70% of all transactions.

The government aims to transition to ZiG in the next few years. By having a usable local currency, it hopes that the central bank will be able to intervene whenever shocks such as high inflation emerge. 

Still, the main challenge is that the government and the central bank will need to convince people and businesses about its stability. For one, officials will need to prove that they will not start printing the currency to fund the deficit. 

The post Zimbabwe ZiG: Gold-backed currency stays stable despite risks appeared first on Invezz

Keep Reading
Investing

Euro zone current account surplus shrinks sharply in March

Investing 3 Mins Read

The euro zone’s combined current account surplus narrowed sharply in March, largely due to a significant decline in the trade surplus, according to data released by the European Central Bank on Thursday.

The current account surplus, adjusted for seasonal and working-day factors, fell to €14.9 billion in March from €25.6 billion in the previous month.

However, based on unadjusted data, the surplus widened to €24.1 billion from €21.7 billion a month earlier.

The ECB said the current account recorded a €15 billion surplus in March 2026, down from €26 billion in the previous month.

Trade surplus decline pressures the current account

According to the ECB, the decline in the current account balance was driven mainly by a drop in the euro area’s trade surplus, which was likely linked to higher energy costs.

The euro area posted surpluses in several major categories during March.

Goods recorded a surplus of €14 billion, while services also posted a €14 billion surplus.

Primary income contributed an additional €2 billion surplus.

These gains were partly offset by a €16 billion deficit in secondary income, the ECB said.

The ECB’s Chart 1, which tracks the euro area current account balance in seasonally adjusted terms, showed a notable monthly decline in the overall surplus during March.

Annual surplus declines from the previous year

Over the 12 months to March 2026, the euro area current account surplus amounted to €275 billion, equivalent to 1.7% of euro area gross domestic product.

This marked a decline from the €368 billion surplus, or 2.4% of GDP, recorded one year earlier.

The figures indicate that the euro area’s external balance weakened over the past year despite continuing surpluses in goods and services trade.

Portfolio investment flows remain strong

The ECB also released details on developments in the financial account.

In the 12 months to March 2026, euro area residents’ net acquisitions of non-euro area portfolio investment securities totalled €779 billion.

At the same time, non-residents’ net acquisitions of euro area portfolio investment securities reached €981 billion.

The data highlighted continued cross-border investment activity despite the decline in the current account surplus.

ECB highlights March balance details

The ECB said the euro area current account balance in March reflected mixed contributions across different sectors of the economy.

While goods and services continued to support the balance, weaker trade dynamics and the deficit in secondary income weighed on the final figure.

“The current account of the euro area recorded a surplus of €15 billion in March 2026, a decrease of €11 billion from the previous month,” the ECB said.

It added that “surpluses were recorded for goods (€14 billion), services (€14 billion) and primary income (€2 billion). These were partly offset by a deficit for secondary income (€16 billion).”

The post Euro zone current account surplus shrinks sharply in March appeared first on Invezz

Keep Reading
Investing

Samsung Electronics sees relief and resentment after strike deal

Investing 3 Mins Read

A last-minute pay agreement at Samsung Electronics has helped avert a strike at the company’s largest chip production complex, bringing relief to South Korea’s semiconductor industry while exposing growing divisions among workers over bonus payouts.

The deal, reached after rising tensions between management and labour unions, comes as Samsung’s semiconductor business continues to benefit from booming demand for artificial intelligence chips.

While the company’s strong profits raised expectations for higher compensation, the agreement has sparked frustration among employees in less profitable divisions who believe the rewards have been distributed unevenly.

Around Samsung’s sprawling semiconductor campus southwest of Seoul, reactions ranged from optimism among local businesses to resentment among workers who felt sidelined by the bonus structure.

Bonus disparities spark frustration

While the agreement has prevented a strike, it has also highlighted widening divisions among employees across Samsung’s chip divisions.

Some workers in the company’s memory chip unit are reportedly set to receive bonuses of around $416,000.

The scale of those payouts has sparked frustration among workers in less profitable divisions, particularly in the foundry business focused on logic chips.

“It looks like those who can switch to SK Hynix will keep applying, while others will try to transfer internally to the memory division,” he added, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue.

At rival chipmaker SK Hynix, some employees reportedly received performance pay packages last year that were three times larger than those paid to Samsung workers.

The disparity has contributed to growing dissatisfaction among Samsung employees and encouraged some workers to move to SK Hynix.

Local businesses cautious over economic impact

Despite hopes of increased spending in the area, some residents and business owners remain sceptical that the agreement will significantly benefit the wider economy around the campus.

Samsung’s Pyeongtaek campus employs around 14,000 workers.

However, a local real estate agent said the economic impact may remain limited unless more employees choose to live in the city permanently, and because a large portion of the bonuses will be paid in shares rather than cash.

Another employee in Samsung’s contract chip manufacturing business said he was still inclined to support the agreement despite concerns over unequal treatment between divisions.

Relief over avoided strike

Some workers and subcontractors expressed relief that a strike now appears unlikely, although concerns remain over the financial burden the agreement could place on the company.

Jang Sung-hyun, 47, who works for a Samsung subcontractor, said he was relieved that operations would continue uninterrupted but questioned whether the union’s demands had become excessive.

Meanwhile, reactions on an online union forum appeared more supportive of the agreement and the union’s negotiating efforts.

Some users praised union representatives for resisting pressure from both Samsung and the government during negotiations.

    The post Samsung Electronics sees relief and resentment after strike deal appeared first on Invezz

    Keep Reading
    Investing

    Euro zone economy weakens further as services demand and jobs decline

    Investing 4 Mins Read

    Economic activity in the euro zone contracted at its fastest pace in more than two-and-a-half years in May as rising living costs linked to the ongoing war weighed heavily on demand, particularly in the services sector, according to surveys released on Thursday.

    Data from S&P Global showed the Flash Euro Zone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8 in April.

    A PMI reading below 50.0 indicates a contraction in business activity.

    The latest figures signalled a second consecutive month of decline across the euro zone’s private sector economy.

    Germany and France see worsening business conditions

    Weakness was seen across the euro area’s major economies.

    Private sector activity in Germany contracted for a second straight month in May, while in France the headline PMI dropped to its lowest level in five-and-a-half years.

    Businesses in France frequently cited fuel and energy cost pressures, along with broader economic uncertainty, as reasons for reduced output.

    Outside the European Union, companies in United Kingdom also experienced their broadest decline in activity in more than a year.

    Firms pointed to the economic fallout from the Iran war and domestic political uncertainty as key challenges.

    Consumer confidence in the euro area also weakened further during the month, according to figures expected later on Thursday.

    Services sector suffers steep decline

    Demand conditions deteriorated sharply across the euro zone during May.

    New orders across the private sector fell at their fastest pace in 18 months.

    Export demand, including intra-euro zone trade, recorded its steepest decline since January 2025.

    The services sector was hit particularly hard. Services activity contracted at its fastest pace since February 2021, reflecting weakening consumer demand across the bloc.

    The Flash Services PMI dropped to 46.4 in May from 47.6 in April, despite expectations for a modest increase.

    New business in the services industry fell sharply, while manufacturing demand, which had improved in April, returned to contraction territory.

    Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI eased to 51.4 from 52.2 and remained below market expectations.

    The manufacturing output PMI, which contributes to the composite reading, declined to 51.0 from 52.3.

    S&P Global said some manufacturing data may have been artificially elevated because supply disruptions extended delivery times for factory goods to levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The disruptions were linked to the US-Israeli war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.

    Inflation pressures intensify

    The surveys also showed a sharp rise in cost pressures.

    Input price inflation accelerated to a three-and-a-half-year high in May, according to the composite PMI data.

    Prices charged by businesses to customers also rose at their fastest pace in 38 months, though only marginally faster than in April.

    S&P Global warned that the latest price indicators pointed to inflation running close to 4% in the coming months.

    The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged last month but debated the possibility of raising rates to combat persistent inflation pressures.

    Policymakers also signalled that a rate increase could be delivered in June.

    ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said in an interview that the central bank may raise interest rates to preserve credibility amid a war-driven increase in fuel costs, although he noted there was limited evidence that high inflation was becoming deeply rooted in the euro zone economy.

    Official data released on Wednesday showed inflation in the euro area remained at 3.0% in April, above the ECB’s 2.0% target.

    Labour market weakens as firms cut jobs

    The euro zone labour market continued to deteriorate during May.

    Companies reduced headcount for a fifth consecutive month, with the pace of job cuts reaching its steepest level since November 2020.

    Excluding the pandemic period, the decline was the largest since August 2013.

    Services firms reduced staffing levels for the first time since early 2021, while manufacturing companies continued to shrink payrolls.

    Business confidence also weakened significantly.

    Overall sentiment dropped to a 32-month low, while confidence among services firms fell to its weakest level since September 2022.

    The post Euro zone economy weakens further as services demand and jobs decline appeared first on Invezz

    Keep Reading