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Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at


XLU Leads with New High

Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.


Metal Mania in 2025

In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.


Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper

The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.  


Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.

Thanks for Tuning in!

See TrendInvestorPro.com for more


President Donald Trump is heading to Beijing with a business delegation that is heavy on marquee names and light on surprise.

Sixteen top executives are expected to join the Beijing visit, including Elon Musk of Tesla, Tim Cook of Apple, Kelly Ortberg of Boeing, Larry Culp of GE Aerospace, Larry Fink of BlackRock, Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs.

The delegation also includes Jane Fraser of Citigroup, Cristiano Amon of Qualcomm, Michael Miebach of Mastercard, Ryan McInerney of Visa, Brian Sikes of Cargill, Jim Anderson of Coherent, Jacob Thaysen of Illumina and Sanjay Mehrotra of Micron Technology.

The summit itself is slated for May 14-15, and the mix of attendees already tells investors where Washington wants the conversation to land: aircraft, agriculture, finance and supply chains.

The deals already written before the plane lands

The first takeaway is that this trip is built around transactions that are largely pre-negotiated.

Boeing and China have been in prolonged talks over a deal that could include 500 737 MAX jets plus dozens of widebody aircraft, a package that would be China’s first major Boeing order since 2017 and potentially the largest airplane order in history.

Beijing is expected to announce purchases tied to American agriculture and energy, which helps explain why Cargill’s Brian Sikes is on the list.

In that sense, the delegation is commercial, and it is meant to surface tangible wins fast.

That framing is exactly why the White House kept the delegation narrower than past China visits.

The administration considered around a dozen companies, far fewer than the 29 executives who accompanied Trump in 2017, and the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer was reluctant to make the trip look like a full-scale “managed trade” summit.

Reva Goujon of Rhodium Group told Reuters that “a small CEO delegation that aligns with the actual concessions and negotiating points would make sense,” adding that Greer seemed intent on not setting expectations too high.

Read more- Trump-Xi summit: trade, Taiwan, AI talks in focus; major breakthroughs unlikely

Who didn’t make the cut?

The names left off the list are as revealing as the ones on it.

Jensen Huang was not invited, as the White House was deliberately prioritizing agriculture and commercial aviation rather than semiconductors.

That makes sense politically as chips remain one of the most sensitive flashpoints in US-China relations, and the administration appears to want this summit to stay focused on deal flow, not export controls.

Oil and gas chiefs were absent from the invite list, with the global energy sector’s current strain from Iran-war-related disruptions likely pushed the White House towards a narrower roster.

The broader geopolitical backdrop matters as the Council on Foreign Relations says Trump and Xi are slated to meet in Beijing on May 14-15, and argues that the summit gives Beijing room to “manage” Washington while trade, Taiwan, rare earths and AI all hover in the background.

That is the key investor point: the White House is trying to extract visible commercial wins while sidestepping the tougher strategic issues that could derail the optics.

Absences such as Nvidia, Alphabet, GM and Disney therefore look less like personal slights than an effort to keep the agenda winnable.

The post Who's in, who's out: what Trump's China CEO list really signals? appeared first on Invezz

Vanguard plans to roughly double its European assets to $1 trillion within five years and become Britain’s biggest retail investment platform, the firm’s head of Europe told Reuters.

The Pennsylvania-based asset manager, which oversees $12 trillion globally, has helped transform the investment industry alongside US rival BlackRock by popularising low-cost index funds for retail investors, drawing money away from traditional active managers.

The European expansion target — starting from roughly $535 billion in regional assets — forms part of a broader plan under chief executive Salim Ramji to double Vanguard’s total overseas assets to $2 trillion by 2030.

Vanguard plans to grow its exchange-traded fund range in Europe to 60–70 products from around 40, adding new fixed income, multi-asset and geographically focused funds, Europe head Cleborne said in an interview.

The firm will also pursue further distribution partnerships with fintechs and expand teams in Germany, Spain and France.

“A big part of our focus is to try to help people in Europe see themselves as investors,” Cleborne said.

Vanguard’s UK ambition puts it up against a highly competitive market.

The firm currently ranks fifth among UK retail investment platforms; overtaking Hargreaves Lansdown, which is roughly five times larger, would be required to reach the top spot.

Retail investing push

Cleborne welcomed the European Union’s efforts to encourage retail investing but said government tax incentives remain essential. “Honestly, that can’t come fast enough,” he said.

Cyber and AI risks

Vanguard is exploring the use of artificial intelligence to provide clients with greater support and financial analysis. The firm is also engaging with Anthropic on cyber risks posed by its new Mythos model, Cleborne said.

“That’s something that keeps all of us up at night, and we want to make sure that we are staying ahead,” he said.

The post Vanguard targets doubling European assets to $1 trillion by 2030 appeared first on Invezz

Vodafone share price dropped today, May 12, even as the company published strong financial results, helped by its strategic pivot to its main markets. It dropped to 112p, from the year-to-date high of 121.95p. Still, it remains substantially higher than last year’s low of 63.12p.

Vodafone’s strategic pivot is paying off 

Vodafone, one of the biggest telecom companies in the world, has been in a major strategic shift in the past few years, and the financial results published today show that it is working.

The company has exited some major markets like Italy, Hungary, Spain, and Ghana. At the same time, it has continued to reduce its stake in Vantage Towers, a leading telecommunications service provider.

At the same time, it has continued to invest in its core markets. For example, it acquired Three in the UK to create a bigger competitor to BT Group. Most recently, it boosted its stake in Safaricom, the largest telecom company in East and Central Africa.

There are signs that these efforts are starting to pay off as evidenced by the financial results published today. These numbers revealed that its revenue rose to over €40.5 billion in the last financial year from the previous €37.4 billion.

The service segment continued growing, reaching €33.5 billion from the previous €30.8 billion, while the adjusted free cash flow rose to €2.6 billion.

A look at its segments shows that Germany’s business continued its recovery, with its organic service revenue rising by 1.3% in the fourth quarter.  This revenue was mostly because of the higher wholesale volume and offset by the intense competition and the final TV law.

Its business in the UK improved by about 0.3%, helped by the ongoing growth in its consumer business, which was offset by the decline in its business arm. 

Most of its growth is coming from its African business, which experienced a double-digit growth trajectory, and Turkey. In a statement, Margherita Della Valle, the CEO, said:

“We returned to top-line growth in Germany, alongside strong performances across Africa and in Türkiye. Our early successes from the UK merger integration reinforce our confidence in its potential, and I am delighted that we are now gaining full ownership.”

Vodafone share price technical analysis

VOD stock chart | Source: TradingView

The weekly chart reveals that the VOD stock has rebounded after forming a double-bottom pattern at 63p. A closer look shows that the stock has been gradually forming a rounded bottom or a cup-and-handle pattern whose upper side is at 141,70. These patterns are usually highly bullish as they signal that bulls are gaining control.

The stock formed a golden cross pattern in February as the 50-week and 200-week moving averages crossed each other. This pattern normally leads to more gains as it signals that the short-term rally is gaining momentum.

Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance level at 141.70, its highest point in May 2021 and February 2022. This target is about 22% above the current level. However, a drop below the key support at 104p will invalidate the bullish outlook.

The post Vodafone share price drops after earnings, as technicals point to a 22% surge appeared first on Invezz

The chart of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) has completed a roundtrip from the February high around $740 to the April low at $480 and all the way back again.  Over the last couple weeks, META has now pulled back from its retest of all-time highs, leaving investors to wonder what may come next.

Is this the beginning of a new downtrend phase for META?  Or just a brief pullback before a new uptrend phase propels META to new all-time highs?

Today we’ll look at two potential scenarios, including the double top pattern and the cup and handle pattern, and share which technical indicators and approaches could help us determine which path plays out into August.

The double top scenario basically means that the late July retest of the previous all-time high was the end of the recent uptrend phase.  The double top pattern is literally when a major resistance level is set and then retested.  The implication is that a lack of willing buyers means the uptrend is exhausted, and there is nowhere to go but down.

While the 21-day exponential moving average is currently in play for META, I would say that a break below the 50-day moving average could confirm this as the correct scenario.  If that smoothing mechanism does not hold, then the price action would imply less of a pullback and more like the beginning of a real distribution phase.

What is META pulls back but then resumes an uptrend phase, leading META to another new all-time high?  That would result in a confirmed cup and handle pattern, created by a large rounded bottoming pattern followed by a brief pullback.  The key to this pattern is the “rim” of the cup, which sits right at $740 for META.

Given the pullback META has demonstrated so far in July, I would say that a break above the $740 level would basically confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  That would suggest much more upside potential for META, as the stock would literally go into previously uncharted territory.

So how can we determine which scenario is more likely to play out?  This is where we need to incorporate more technical indicators into the discussion, as a way to further validate and confirm our investment thesis.

Just to review, I think a break above $740 would confirm a bullish cup and handle pattern.  I would also say that a break below the $680 level, which would represent a move below the 50-day moving average as well as the June swing lows, would basically confirm a bearish double top pattern.

We can also use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to help determine whether META remains in a bullish trend phase.  During bull phases, the RSI rarely gets below 40, because buyers usually step in to “buy the dips” and keep the momentum fairly constructive.  So if the price would break down, and the RSI would not hold that crucial 40 level, that could mean a bearish outlook is warranted.

Finally, we can use volume-based indicators to assess whether moves in the price are supported by stronger volume readings.  Here I’ve included the Accumulation/Distribution Line, which tracks the trend in daily volume readings over time.  We can see that the high in July resulted in a divergence, as the A/D line was trending lower.  If the A/D line would break below its June and July lows, marked by a dashed red line, that would represent a bearish volume reading for META.

Technical analysis is less about predicting the future, and more about determining the most probable scenarios based on our analysis of trend, momentum, and volume.  I hope this discussion shows how the outlook for META can be easily determined and tracked using the best practices of technical analysis!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Markets don’t usually hit record highs, risk falling into bearish territory, and spring back to new highs within six months. But that’s what happened in 2025.

In this special mid-year recap, Grayson Roze sits down with David Keller, CMT, to show how disciplined routines, price-based signals, and a calm process helped them ride the whipsaw instead of getting tossed by it. You’ll see what really happened under the surface, how investor psychology drove the swings, and the exact StockCharts tools they leaned on to stay objective. 

If you’re focused on protecting capital, generating income, and sleeping well at night while still capturing the upside, this is a must-watch. Discover which charts deserve your attention now, what to ignore, and how to prep for the back half of 2025. 

This video premiered on July 23, 2025. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Grayson Roze page on StockCharts TV.

You can view previously recorded videos from Grayson at this link.

Here are some charts that reflect our areas of focus this week at


XLU Leads with New High

Even though the Utilities SPDR (XLU) cannot keep pace with the Technology SPDR (XLK) and Communication Services SPDR (XLC), it is in a leading uptrend. XLU formed a cup-with-handle from November to July and broke to new highs the last two weeks. ETFs hitting new highs are in strong uptrends and should be on our radar.


Metal Mania in 2025

In a tribute to Ozzy, metals are leading the way higher in 2025. The PerfChart below shows year-to-date performance for the continuous futures for 12 commodities. Copper, Platinum and Palladium are up more than 45% year-to-date, while Gold is up 28.38% and Silver is up 35.30%. QQQ is up 10.52% year-to-date, but lagging these metals. The other commodities are mixed.


Multi-Year Highs for Silver and Copper

The next chart shows 11 year bar charts for five metals. Gold broke out in early 2024 and led the metals move with an advance the last 21 months. Silver and copper broke out to multi-year highs. Platinum broke above its 2021 high and Palladium got in the action with an 18 month high. There is a clear message here: metals are moving higher and leading as a group.  


Home Construction Hits Moment of Truth

The Home Construction ETF (ITB) hit its moment of truth as it rose to its falling 40-week SMA. Notice that ITB failed just below this moving average in August 2023. During the 2023-2024 uptrend, the 40-week SMA was more friendly as ITB reversed near this level in October 2023 and June 2024. ITB surged to the falling 40-week SMA in July, but the long-term trend is down and this area could be its nemesis.

Thanks for Tuning in!

See TrendInvestorPro.com for more


The S&P 500 ($SPX) just logged its fifth straight trading box breakout, which means that, of the five trading ranges the index has experienced since the April lows, all have been resolved to the upside.

How much longer can this last? That’s been the biggest question since the massive April 9 rally. Instead of assuming the market is due to roll over, it’s been more productive to track price action and watch for potential changes along the way. So far, drawdowns have been minimal, and breakouts keep occurring. Nothing in the price action hints at a lasting change — yet.

While some are calling this rally “historic,” we have a recent precedent. Recall that from late 2023 through early 2024, the index had a strong start and gave way to a consistent, steady trend.

From late October 2023 through March 2024, the S&P 500 logged seven consecutive trading box breakouts. That streak finally paused with a pullback from late March to early April, which, as we now know, was only a temporary hiccup. Once the bid returned, the S&P 500 went right back to carving new boxes and climbing higher.

New 52-Week Highs Finally Picking Up

If there’s been one gripe about this rally, it’s that the number of new highs within the index has lagged. As we’ve discussed before, among all the internal breadth indicators available, new highs almost always lag — that’s normal. What we really want to see is whether the number of new highs begins to exceed prior peaks as the market continues to rise, which it has, as shown by the blue line in the chart below.

As of Wednesday’s close, 100 S&P 500 stocks were either at new 52-week highs or within 3% of them. That’s a strong base. We expect this number to continue rising as the market climbs, especially if positive earnings reactions persist across sectors.

Even when we get that first day with 100+ S&P 500 stocks making new 52-week highs, though, it might not be the best time to initiate new longs.

The above chart shows that much needs to align for that many stocks to peak in unison, which has historically led to at least a short-term consolidation, if not deeper pullbacks — as highlighted in yellow. Every time is different, of course, but this is something to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.

Trend Check: GoNoGo Still “Go”

The GoNoGo Trend remains in bullish mode, with the recent countertrend signals having yet to trigger a greater pullback.

Active Bullish Patterns

We still have two live bullish upside targets of 6,555 and 6,745, which could be with us for a while going forward. For the S&P 500 to get there, it will need to form new, smaller versions of the trading boxes.

Failed Bearish Patterns

In the chart below, you can view a rising wedge pattern on the recent price action, the third since April. The prior two wedges broke down briefly and did not lead to a major downturn. The largest pullbacks in each case occurred after the S&P 500 dipped below the lower trendline of the pattern.

The deepest drawdown so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game-changer. Without downside follow-through, a classic bearish pattern simply can’t be formed, let alone be broken down from.

We’ll continue to monitor these formations as they develop because, at some point, that will change.

Is the market’s next surge already underway? Find out with Tom Bowley’s breakdown of where the money is flowing now and how you can get in front of it.

In this video, Tom covers key moves in the major indexes, revealing strength in transports, small caps, and home construction. He identifies industry rotation signals, which are pointing to aluminum, recreational products, and furnishings. Tom then demonstrates how to use StockCharts’ tools to scan for momentum stocks in emerging leadership groups — see why SGI tops Tom’s list. He ends with a discussion of post-earnings reactions from major names like GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, and LVS. 

And, of course, Tom wraps every idea with clear chart setups you can act on today. 

This video premiered on July 24, 2025. Click this link to watch on Tom’s dedicated page.

Missed a session? Archived videos from Tom are available at this link.

The pound struggled to extend gains against the dollar on Monday, with GBP/USD failing to build on a modest intraday bounce as fresh US dollar buying capped its recovery.

Optimism over a potential US-Iran nuclear deal faded quickly after renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and widening disagreements over Tehran’s nuclear programme.

That, combined with reviving expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, weighed on the pair’s rebound from the 1.3550–1.3545 support zone.

Sterling found some support from the Bank of England, which signalled that further rate increases could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent.

Easing concerns over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s political position also underpinned the pound, limiting the downside.

Technical outlook

The pair holds above the 100-period exponential moving average, suggesting a mildly constructive near-term bias.

Momentum indicators are mixed: the relative strength index hovers near the neutral 50 mark, while the moving average convergence divergence has slipped marginally back below zero.

That combination points to tentative rather than impulsive upside.

Traders may prefer to wait for a sustained break above the 1.3635 horizontal barrier, alongside a decisive turn higher in momentum indicators, before treating the pair’s broader advance of the past month as resuming.

On the downside, initial support sits at the 100-period EMA around 1.3538.

A break below that level would expose the pair to a deeper correction toward prior lows.

As long as GBP/USD holds above that moving average, buyers retain a short-term edge.

The post Pound steadies as USD firms on Fed bets, Iran risks appeared first on Invezz